[ BDSN ] The $56.2 billion shift - AI commerce is here in Q4

👀 THE $56.2 BILLION SHIFT - AI COMMERCE is HERE

While ChatGPT's new checkout feature won't dethrone Amazon overnight, a fundamental shift in shopping behavior is underway. The window for early-mover advantage is open now, but it won't stay open long.

Let's address the elephant in the room: Amazon isn't going anywhere.

Your customers trust Amazon's one-click checkout, Prime's two-day delivery, and the familiar blue "Buy Now" button. That trust took decades to build, and no AI chatbot will replicate it overnight.

But here's what should keep you up at night: 74% of consumers now use AI tools in their path to purchase. They're asking ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google's AI Mode to find products before they ever reach Amazon's search bar.

The game isn't about replacing Amazon. It's about controlling where discovery happens.

The Real Threat: Losing the Discovery Channel

Think about your customer's journey:

Old way:
Customer → Amazon search → Your listing (competing with 100 others)

New way:
Customer → AI agent → Unsponsored recommendations → Direct checkout (maybe never touching Amazon)

AI agents are becoming the new "top of funnel." And unlike Amazon's search results, where bigger brands dominate through advertising spend, AI recommendations prioritize relevance, reviews, and authenticity.

This levels the playing field. A ceramics artist on Etsy can now compete with mass retailers when a ChatGPT user asks for "unique handmade coffee mugs."

The Protocol Wars: Two Titans, One Standard

Behind the scenes, a massive battle is unfolding:

OpenAI + Stripe launched the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP)—open-source, designed for ChatGPT's 700M weekly users, with "one line of code" integration for Stripe merchants.

Google + PayPal countered with Agent Payments Protocol (AP2)—backed by 60+ major retailers, integrated with Google's Shopping Graph (508 billion listings), and announced two weeks before OpenAI's launch.

The likely outcome? Fragmentation. Just like you support multiple payment processors today, you'll need to support multiple AI commerce protocols tomorrow.

AI commerce works best for:

• Considered purchases (think robot vacuums, not fashion impulse buys)

• Products with clear specifications and variants

• Merchants with strong reviews and authentic positioning

It's not replacing visual discovery platforms like Instagram or TikTok Shop. Different channels for different shopping behaviors.

Your 30-Day Action Plan

1. Fix Your Data Infrastructure

• Audit Schema.org markup (Product, Offer, AggregateRating)

• Verify GTIN, size, color, material for every variant

• Enable real-time inventory sync

If AI can't parse your data, you don't exist.

2. Apply for Programs NOW

• OpenAI merchant portal

• Google Merchant Center

• Perplexity merchant program

• Shopify's ChatGPT integration (if applicable)

Early adopters get algorithm training advantages.

3. Test Your Discoverability Search your products in ChatGPT, Perplexity, Google AI Mode. What surfaces? What's missing? Fix it immediately.

You can't game AI with ad spend. Quality wins.

The Coming Ad Disruption

Amazon's advertising hit 9.36% of revenue in Q2 2025, its most profitable ever.

That $56.2 billion exists because Amazon controls scarcity. ChatGPT eliminates scarcity through unlimited conversational space.

But here's the trap: OpenAI is training ad algorithms on billions of preference-rich conversations with context keyword searches never capture.

Translation: Enjoy organic discovery now. When OpenAI launches conversational ads, they'll have better targeting than Amazon ever dreamed of.

The organic window is closing.

Amazon won't disappear:

• Trust and one-click checkout

• Prime logistics

• Established habits

But Amazon killed organic discovery years ago. Every unpaid product view is now a gift, not a strategy.

AI commerce returns discoverability to merchants who earn it through relevance, not ad budgets.

ChatGPT's modest 2% conversion rate at $70 AOV = $5.5B annual GMV (half of Etsy's global marketplace).

But GMV isn't the threat. The threat is organic discovery returning at scale and the death of scarcity-based advertising.

In the next 30 day focus on:

• Algorithm training advantages

• Organic visibility before paid ads

• First-mover positioning

• Early customer data

Wait, and you lose:

• Discoverability to early movers

• Cost-effective acquisition window

• Algorithm learning curves

Stripe CEO Patrick Collison: "It's clear that internet purchasing modalities are going to change a lot."

Sellers spent $56.2 billion on Amazon ads in 2024 for placement. ChatGPT is offering what Amazon eliminated: organic discovery at scale.

The window is open. Move now or pay later.

Want to optimize your AEO presence? DragonFish, a new service from Kevin King and Norm Farrar can help you.

Also, on October 29, three of the top minds in AI optimization for ecom, Jo Lambadjieva, Molly Mahoney and Kasim Aslam (he has more data than anybody) will be in the Billion Dollar Sellers Club live sharing what’s working now.

🔭 YOU GOTTA SEE THIS

This new series called Scale Stories from Helium 10 was filmed by one of the teams that shoots for Mr. Beast. It features several BDSS Dream 100 members, including Melisa Vong, Michelle Barnum Smith, Bradley Sutton and Leo Sgovio as well as others as they guide new sellers in the process of selling on Amazon, from product selection to launch.

✈️ DREAM 100 MEMBERS CONFIRMED for MARKET MASTERS 

Amy Wees
Athena Severi
Brian Johnson
Chad Rubin
Dan Ashburn
Ian Sells
Janelle Page
Jon Derkits
Josh Hadley
Leo Sgovio
Matt Altman
Matt Kostan
Michelle Barnum Smith
Mike McClary
Norm Farrar
Paul Rafelson
Rich Goldstein
Steve Simonson
Scott Deetz

more Dream 100 members are being confirmed

Plus others including Howard Thai, Dan Kurtz, Hurricane Liz and another 12-15 people from the marketing and e-com world plus several surprise big name guests.

You are crazy if you miss this!

Full details and tickets

🗄️ AI MEETS AMAZON DATA: YOUR NEW COMPETITIVE EDGE

Artificial intelligence excels at one thing above all else: analyzing massive amounts of data and finding patterns humans would miss or take hours to uncover. While AI can write, create images, and chat, its true superpower is turning oceans of raw data into actionable insights in seconds.

For Amazon sellers drowning in reports, metrics, and spreadsheets, this is a game-changer.

Enter DataDoe, an AI analyst built specifically for your Amazon business.

DataDoe connects directly to your Amazon US seller account in minutes. Once connected, it automatically pulls your sales data, advertising metrics, fees, session analytics, and more in real-time.

The platform integrates with Amazon across all regions to access your seller data, creating a live connection to your business metrics. No manual CSV uploads. No copy-pasting. No outdated snapshots.

Talk to Your Business Like It's a Person

Here's where it gets interesting. Instead of clicking through Seller Central tabs or building pivot tables, you simply ask questions like you would to an analyst.

Real examples of questions you can ask:

• "Which ASIN is eating my ad budget?"

• "Why did my ad spend increase?"

• "What's my ACoS by product line?"

• "Which products have the highest return rate?"

• "Show me my profit margin by ASIN"

• "What trends am I seeing in my category?"

Your dashboard shows live P&L data, tracks inventory, monitors ads, and analyzes refunds all in one place. No more logging into multiple tools or refreshing five different tabs.

It's like having a full-time analyst who knows every stat, every ASIN, and every trend—except faster and smarter.

As one seller at Prosper Show 2025 put it: "I wish there was a tool I could actually think with—like I do with ChatGPT for other things, but connected to my Amazon business" That's exactly what DataDoe delivers.

Ready to let AI handle your data analysis? Connect your account at app.datadoe.com and start asking questions.

🌬️  AMAZON SEARCH is CHANGING: HERE’S WHAT it MEANS

Dream 100 member Destaney Wishon of BTR Media says Amazon search isn't what it used to be. She says the latest updates to the search results page make one thing clear: Amazon is now prioritizing contextual and behavioral signals over simple keyword matches.

Here's what's shifting:

Personalization is the new default. Two shoppers searching the same term may see completely different results based on their browsing history, purchase patterns, and past brand interactions.

Keywords alone won't cut it anymore. The old playbook of bidding aggressively on top search terms is being disrupted. While ads still dominate the top of the page, getting there requires more than just budget and bids.

Brand strength now drives search visibility. Amazon is rewarding engagement, brand recognition, and content quality. Your video assets, DSP campaigns, and even off-Amazon marketing now directly impact where you show up in search results.

What This Means for Your Brand:

Stop treating search as its own isolated channel. Your awareness campaigns, Sponsored Display, and DSP efforts all feed into search performance now. Connect your upper-funnel media with retail measurement tools like Amazon Marketing Cloud (AMC) to understand the full picture.

Focus on incrementality, not just keyword ranking. It's about building brand momentum that carries through the entire customer journey, from first impression to final purchase.

The digital shelf is evolving fast. If you're still optimizing only for keywords, you're playing an outdated game. The brands winning on Amazon today are the ones building full-funnel strategies that treat search as the outcome, not the starting point.

🤖  AI SHOPPING PREDICTIONS for the HOLIDAYS

Game-changing data from Adobe Analytics reveals that AI-powered shopping traffic will skyrocket 520% this year, potentially hitting 1,000% on peak shopping days like Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Thanksgiving.

Adobe's survey of 5,000 consumers found that over half plan to use AI tools for product research this holiday season. Your potential customers are already using AI to:

• Compare prices and hunt for deals (36%)

• Get gift ideas and inspiration (30%)

• Find personalized product recommendations (40%)

The New Customer Journey

Major platforms have rapidly adapted. Perplexity now offers in-chat shopping through PayPal, while ChatGPT recently launched "Instant Checkout" with Etsy and is rolling out Shopify integration. Shoppers are even using AI chatbots to discover coupon codes.

Why This Matters for Your Listings

With mobile devices accounting for 56% of transactions and buy-now-pay-later services processing $20 billion in purchases, customers face overwhelming choices.

Categories expected to see the highest AI shopping activity include toys, electronics, and jewelry, and they are exactly where buyers need help cutting through endless options and price fluctuations.

Make sure your product titles, bullet points, and descriptions are clear and detailed. AI tools scan this information to recommend products to shoppers. Focus on specific features, benefits, and use cases that help AI understand exactly what you're selling and who it's perfect for.

✌🏼 Have a great weekend.

See you again on Monday.

The answer to today’s STUMP BEZOS is
Shopify powers 14.6% of all online stores